World Cup data so far: Spain and Switzerland wasteful while Argentina show efficiency

Pre-tournament rumours that stadiums would only be half full and that supporter interest both locally and globally would be lower than usual appear to have been unfounded.

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Cape Verde's incredible performance against Spain

Each game has been awash with colour and atmosphere, and the action on the pitch in many of the games played thus far has matched the intensity and fervour in the stands.

What has been noticeable in some games, however, is how results have differed when compared to the number of chances created.

For example, no one in their right mind would've given Cape Verde a chance of getting anything from their match against one of the pre-tournament favourites, Spain.

In such games, where a minnow, with respect, is up against a seasoned outfit, complacency is generally the only enemy for the more celebrated sides.

La Roja certainly couldn't be accused of taking their assignment lightly, as they dominated their opponents in virtually every aspect.

Poor finishing from Ferran Torres

51 touches in Cape Verde's penalty area compared to just six at the opposite end, Spain also had an incredible 27 shots to six, and an xG of 2.1 vs Cape Verde's 0.21. 

And yet, the World Cup debutants held on for an unimaginable morale-boosting draw that sent shockwaves through the football world.

But how did they do it?

A mixture of a lifetime-best performance from 40-year-old Cape Verde goalkeeper, Vozinha, and profligacy from La Roja's front men tells the story.

Ferran Torres' poor finishing saw him miss one big chance, and the four shots that he took lowered the value of his shooting positions from 0.66 xG (expected Goals) to 0.17 xGOT (expected Goals On Target)

Teammate Mikel Oyarzabal, whose xG was 0.5 with five shots, saw his xGOT lowered to 0.09, leaving him and Torres in the bottom 10 players at the tournament with the biggest difference between their xG and xGOT at the tournament.

As Flashscore's data analyst Marek Kabat noted after the game: “For Spain, the finishing wasn’t that wasteful, but in combination with an extraordinary performance by Vozinha, who saved 1.5 xG of chances, it led to a shocking goalless draw.” 

Switzerland's wasted chances

It was a similar story for Switzerland in their opener against Qatar.

To date in the tournament, the Swiss have the third-highest xG value of 3.2, far more than their opponents' 0.6. Some 26 shots to six, and 42 touches in the Qatari area compared to eight at the opposite end, should certainly have seen more than their solitary goal from the penalty spot.

However, once you take into account that four different Swiss players missed at least one big chance (Ruben Vargas missed two), it's understandable that this led to a lowered value of their shooting positions from 3.2 xG to 1.78 xGOT.

To put that into a little bit more perspective, Switzerland lost almost 1.5 goals purely because of the poor level of their finishing.

Marek Kabat again: "According to chance creation data, this should have been a clear victory for Switzerland by multiple goals, but wasting 1.5 xG of chances directly just through poor finishing basically cost them two points."

Messi masterclass

On the flip side, we saw situations in other matches which were almost the polar opposite.

Lionel Messi's one-man masterclass for Argentina against Algeria rightly earned the plaudits, but it was his efficiency in front of goal that was the major reason for La Albiceleste's victory.

Simply put, his team didn't need the same level of chance creation as the likes of Spain or Switzerland did to earn the win.

Indeed, Argentina improved their shooting positions from 1.26 xG to 2.22, whilst Messi ensured that his 1.05 xG increased to 1.86 xGOT, which also helped to give him a Flashscore player rating of 9.6 - the highest at the tournament so far.

His goals were great, of course, but the rating was high because he also had six total shots at goal, created two further chances, made six progressive passes and seven final third entries, whilst also shoring up his playmaking capabilities with four successful passes into the box.

Exceptional Balogun

The United States and Sweden were two other countries that benefited from goalscoring efficiency in attack, leading to the former's 4-1 win over Paraguay and an improvement in their collective shooting positions from 1.34 xG to 2.43, and the latter's improvement from 1.34 xG to 2.12, in an eventual 5-1 victory against Tunisia.

For the USA, Folarin Balogun was exceptional. 

Even though he missed one big chance against Paraguay, he still earned a Flashscore rating of 9.0 predominantly because of the two goals he did score, as well as the five shots and 10 touches in the opponent's penalty area, both of which were game highs. As a result, his 0.47 xG rose to 1.65 xGOT.

Though the finishing of Sweden's players was certainly on point, with Yasin Ayari scoring twice with his two shots (0.07 xG), it was a disaster class from Tunisian goalkeeper Mouhib Chamakh that ultimately saw him concede five times.

Of the six saves he attempted in the match, only one was successful, and two of the goals conceded were explicitly down to his errors.

Not to mention that he conceded almost 3 goals more (2.88) than he should have according to xGOT Faced.

That gave Chamakh the lowest Flashscore rating at the tournament so far (2.9) - even lower than Curacao custodian, Eloy Room's 4.3, despite him conceding seven goals against Germany, and South Africa midfielder, Yaya Sithole's 3.8 rating, even though he was sent off after 49 minutes, having previously made an error leading to a goal and winning just a single duel out of eight attempted. 

In summary, then, all three of Argentina, the USA and Sweden produced significantly lower xG values (all below 1.5) than Switzerland and Spain, despite scoring more goals.

Teams that can dominate possession for long periods, therefore, also need to ensure maximum efficiency from their players in front of goal. 

Passing for passing's sake is little more than entertainment for the masses, and it has been shown time and again that such a style isn't always a winning one either.

Jason Pettigrove has been the features writer for Flashscore since 2025, utilising Opta data to form the basis of his articles. He has previously worked for high profile football clubs, news and media outlets, both in print and digital, and can usually be found watching FC Barcelona when time permits. You can read more of his pieces here.