French Open 2026 men's draw analysis: Sinner the huge favourite for Career Grand Slam

Sinner is the overwhelming favourite to win the French Open
Sinner is the overwhelming favourite to win the French OpenLoic Baratoux/ZUMA Press Wire / Shutterstock Editorial / Profimedia

The second major of the year in Paris is right around the corner. The French Open begins on Sunday, with Jannik Sinner the huge favourite to win the title and complete the Career Grand Slam. Can anyone lay a glove on the world number one, who is looking to add to his victories on the dirt of Monte Carlo, Madrid and Rome in 2026?

Let's take a deeper look at the men's draw, analysing which players have been handed kind draws and which have been given the toughest routes to the final.

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First quarter

Seeds: Jannik Sinner (1), Ben Shelton (5), Alexander Bublik (9), Luciano Darderi (14), Frances Tiafoe (19), Arthur Rinderknech (22), Tallon Griekspoor (29), Corentin Moutet (30)

It is a wonderful draw for Sinner, but realistically, anyone could have been pulled out of the hat in any order, and you would say the same thing. He is lightyears ahead of anyone, and it is hard to see how anyone in this section can make the Italian break a sweat.

I have absolutely no doubt that he will sweep through his quarter, but fifth seed Shelton won't be his last-eight opponent. Despite winning in Munich a few weeks ago, his form on the clay hasn't been great recently, and I could see Bublik - who hasn't been in the best touch himself - eliminating him.

Prediction: Sinner to beat Bublik in the quarter-finals

In a rematch of last year's quarter-final, which saw Bublik play some incredible tennis to reach this stage, Sinner will once again beat him in straight sets. The Kazakh blows too hot and cold, and has a mentality problem against the Italian, seemingly accepting defeat before even setting foot on the court.

Second quarter

Seeds: Felix Auger-Aliassime (4), Daniil Medvedev (6), Flavio Cobolli (10), Learner Tien (18), Valentin Vacherot (16), Cameron Norrie (20), Francisco Cerundolo (25), Brandon Nakashima (31)

Talk about an open quarter. Auger-Aliassime, being the highest seed in this section, sums it all up. The Canadian is a fine player, but his record on clay isn't good, and he has never made it past the fourth round in Paris. 

The second-highest seed is Medvedev, who openly doesn't enjoy playing on the dirt, and his recent Grand Slam record isn't great. Does this open the door for players who enjoy playing on clay, like Cobolli, Vacherot and Cerundolo? It is really tough to call.

Prediction: Vacherot to beat Medvedev in the quarter-finals

This one took me a while. But I'm going to go with Vacherot continuing his dream over the last eight months with a run to the French Open semi-finals. I want to pick a surprise player reaching the last four, too, and I do think it could be him.

He reached the semis on home turf in Monte Carlo, and he plays well on the red stuff. I could see him really enjoying himself this tournament. It wouldn't surprise me one bit if Medvedev was the man to come through this quarter, but I will edge with Vacherot.

Third quarter

Seeds: Novak Djokovic (3), Alex De Minaur (6), Andrey Rublev (11), Casper Ruud (15), Tomas Martin Etcheverry (23), Tommy Paul (24), Jakub Mensik (26), Joao Fonseca (28)

For the first time, I am betting against Djokovic going that deep at all, and that is because he has been given a truly nightmare job. He will have to pull a rabbit out of the hat if he wants to win Grand Slam No. 25.

Home favourite Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard in the opening round is tricky, but with Fonseca potentially awaiting in round three, and then Ruud in round four, he is going to have to dig so deep to make it to the quarters.

Prediction: Ruud to beat Rublev in the quarter-finals

I am going big on Ruud this competition. He looked fantastic in his run to the Rome final, and he is a two-time finalist at the French Open. He seems to have regained a lot of confidence playing on his favourite surface.

Rublev has also been playing well on the clay, going on good runs in Barcelona and Rome. However, I think he will fail to make it past the quarter-finals of a Slam for the 11th time in his career, and Ruud will beat him.

Fourth quarter

Seeds: Alexander Zverev (2), Taylor Fritz (7), Jiri Lehecka (12), Karen Khachanov (13), Arthur Fils (17), Alejandro Davidovich Fokina (21), Rafa Jodar (27), Ugo Humbert (32)

I think this is a tricky draw for Zverev, and I am not sure he will be pleased to see Fritz lurking. Look, the American has only played one match on clay this year, losing to Alexei Popyrin, and he isn't the best clay court player. But this is a match-up problem for Zverev. Fritz leads the head-to-head 9-5 and has won their last six meetings.

Zverev remains arguably the greatest player ever to never win a Grand Slam
Zverev remains arguably the greatest player ever to never win a Grand SlamREUTERS / Ciro De Luca / Flashscore

Also, Fils has had an amazing comeback from injury, and on home turf, he is going to be a real force. That isn't to mention young star Jodar, whose breakout over the last few weeks has been nothing short of sensational.

Prediction: Zverev to beat Lehecka in the quarter-finals

I will still go with Zverev, though. He just knows how to get the job done in five-set matches, has been to a French Open final before, and loves the grind. I'd be surprised if Fritz makes it to the last eight, and Jodar is only appearing in his second Slam. Lehecka has had a pretty solid year, so I think he might make the quarters.

The issue will be Zverev's potential fourth-round clash with Fils. However, I think Zverev will outlast him and just show his experience at Grand Slam level, marching on as he hunts a maiden Grand Slam title.

Semi-final and final predictions

Semi-final 1: Sinner to beat Vacherot

Semi-final 2: Ruud to beat Zverev

Final: Sinner to beat Ruud

Boring, I know! But I fully expect Sinner to win his sixth title in a row in a rematch of the Rome Masters final, extending his winning streak to a staggering 36 wins, which would be the third longest in the ATP Tour era (since 1990). It would be a shock of seismic proportions if he didn't win his fifth major and complete the Career Grand Slam.

A side point: assuming Sinner doesn't play in any tournaments before Wimbledon, if he wins the French Open and then retains his crown in London, he will match the longest ATP Tour era winning streak, which Djokovic set in 2010-2011 (43).

The all-time winning streak in the Open Era is 49 wins, set by Bjorn Borg in 1978.

Sinner could meet Ruud in a rematch of the Rome final
Sinner could meet Ruud in a rematch of the Rome finalDomenico Cippitelli / Zuma Press / Profimedia

Anyway, it would genuinely be no surprise to me if Sinner didn't drop a single set all tournament, and showcases why he is so far ahead of anyone else with Carlos Alcaraz out injured.

As mentioned earlier, I think Ruud will have a great tournament and overcome Zverev in the semis, ending the world number three's quest. However, unfortunately, he will lose in his fourth Grand Slam final, and his third in Paris.

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