So far, both teams have cruised through the tournament. Michigan has earned the No. 1 seed in the Midwest region, and it was somewhat expected that the Wolverines wouldn’t run into trouble early. In the opening game, they beat Howard 101-80. The Saint Louis Billikens didn’t challenge Michigan any better as the favorite held their position and won 95-72.
The fourth-seeded Crimson Tide squared off against Hofstra in the first round and beat the Pride 90-70. Then, waiting was No. 5 Texas Tech – a team that finished third in the Big 12 and was looking to make a big dance run after a disappointing early exit from the conference tournament. They didn’t stand a chance against the high-paced Alabama team that dismantled them 90-65. This year, Alabama hasn’t been surviving and advancing. They have been dominating.
Run and gun
Michigan will likely be the first true test for this red-hot Alabama team. The Wolverines have lost just three games all season, and anything short of a national title would feel like a disappointment. But as the tournament progresses, the margin for error shrinks. There are no easy matchups in the Sweet 16. Alabama enters as the underdog, but if they impose their style, that can change quickly.
This game will come down to a clash of identities, and whoever can maintain their standards and impose their style is likely to come out on top. The Crimson Tide is notorious for a potent, high-scoring offense that thrives beyond the arc. Alabama leads the country in points per game, averaging 91.7 points. They rank second in three-pointers made per game with 12.6, and 54 % of their shots come from behind the three-point line. Alabama fills it up and gets the ball through the hoop.
Defense, however, seems to be somewhat optional as the Crimson Tide allows its opponents to score 82.5 points on average, which is the most by any team remaining in the NCAA tournament. In fact, no Sweet 16 team has allowed more points since Loyola Marymount in 1990! Alabama simply relies on its offensive arsenal and the ability to outscore its opponents. And it’s been working.
In 1990, Loyola was known for the exact same style of play. Insanely high offensive pace with low defensive impact. But the goal of the Lions was to suck their opponents into their playing style – make them take quick shots they weren’t ready for and turn the contests into shootouts. Shootouts Loyola excelled at, but others were uncomfortable in. In March Madness, No. 11 Marymount faced No. 3 Michigan in the second round. Loyola was a clear underdog, but made Michigan play their game and won 149-115 in what still holds as the highest scoring game in NCAA tournament history.
Win through the paint
Alabama will try to replicate that formula, but Michigan presents a different kind of challenge. Wolverines love to score too, and they don’t play slow. They scored 196 points in their first two tournament games, but in an altered fashion. Michigan loves going through the paint – they have a strong post presence and want to take shots closer to the hoop. The Wolverines are physical and tall, as their best three scorers are 6-foot-9 or taller. Michigan wants to dominate the glass and capitalize on second-chance points.
It’s Alabama’s perimeter attack versus Michigan’s interior dominance. The Crimson Tide will have to find a way to stop the Wolverines from scoring in the paint too much, but if Michigan wants to be successful, it will need to defend the three-point line. The No. 1 team has shown it can defend beyond the arc – Michigan had the second-lowest three-point field goal percentage allowed in the Big Ten, holding their opponents to just 32 %.
But is it going to be enough for a sniper-caliber team like Alabama?
For Alabama to win, they will have to catch fire early to stay in the game. They are coming off a whopping 19 made triples against Texas Tech, and they will need a similar performance to beat Michigan. Alabama must defend the paint, as Michigan’s 7-foot-3 Aday Mara is a matchup nightmare. The Wolverines are now the favorite to win the national championship, but they will have to find their way through the resilient, dangerous, and unpredictable Alabama team first.
If Michigan plays its game, it shouldn’t have many issues. But March doesn’t care about the favorites – it writes its own scenarios where anybody can be the winner. The seedings get less significant with each round, and Alabama wouldn’t be the first No. 4 to pull off a big upset.