However, outstanding late-season form from all players not named Djokovic must be taken with a pinch of salt. For example, after winning the ATP Finals for the first time in 2018, Alexander Zverev experienced a horror season the following year, winning just one title in Geneva and failing to reach any Grand Slam semi-finals.
Something similar happened to Stefanos Tsitsipas a year later, with him only winning two tournaments in 2020, the Monte Carlo Masters and a triumph in Lyon. He did, however, reach the final of Roland Garros and the semi-finals of the Australian Open.
Zverev then did better in 2021 when he won the ATP Finals again and won the Madrid Masters and Marseille the following year. A horror ankle injury then stopped him in the semi-finals of the French Open.
Daniil Medvedev also showed that brilliant form during the final phase of the season doesn't necessarily have to mean something bad: in 2021, he reached the final of the Australian Open, then in late summer he secured his first and to date only Grand Slam at the US Open.
What these statistics show, however, is that one swallow does not make a summer. A strong ending to a season does not mean that an equally strong year will follow.
Sinner's steady progress
However, Sinner is anything but a swallow. At the age of 22, the Italian has shown steady improvement from season to season since his first year on tour in 2019, symbolised by his runs in the Davis Cup: he reached the quarter-finals with Italy in 2021, the semi-finals in 2022 and victory in 2023.
The growth can also be clearly seen in the results at Grand Slams: he reached his first Grand Slam quarter-final at the French Open in 2020, three in one season in 2022 and his first semi-final appearance at Wimbledon in 2023.
He reached the round of 16 at Masters 1000 tournaments for the first time in 2020, reached a final in this category for the first time at the Miami Open in 2021, and reached three quarter-finals in 2022.
In the 2023 season, he won the Canadian Open for the first time and also reached another final in Miami as well as two more semi-finals.
Djokovic provides big learning curve and two victories
The Davis Cup victory in Malaga and the run to the final in Turin were the consequences of steady evolution from Sinner, but how far can this evolution go?
In Italy, the best-ranked Italian tennis player of all time is already a national hero, and I'm curious to see how the South Tyrolean will cope with the pressure brought by the growing expectation of big titles. After all, there is only one step up from winning a Masters tournament: winning a Grand Slam.
In the final of the ATP Finals, he crumbled under this pressure against Novak Djokovic. However, less than a week later he showed that he can handle it, beating the Serb after being three match points down.
It was a mature performance that left the world longing for more Sinner on the biggest stages. In particular, his varied choice of shots and the consistently high power he produces are weapons that he has demonstrated impressively and repeatedly in recent months.
A three-way battle for the Grand Slams?
2024 could therefore be a big year for the modest young man from San Candido. A year in which he wants to go to the very top with his game. "I think he has a good chance of winning a Grand Slam in 2024," said former professional Greg Rusedski recently.
I agree with that. In his current form, Sinner is within reach of Djokovic and Carlos Alcaraz, who already proved in 2023 that he can hold his own against the current number one on the biggest courts.
In the Australian summer - where the first Grand Slam will be played partly indoors, where Sinner says he feels most comfortable - the world number four could fly to new heights as early as January, whether as a swallow or a bird of prey.
