The Base Line: Sabalenka beats Rybakina in Indian Wells epic as Sinner joins elite group

Sabalenka celebrates her victory in California
Sabalenka celebrates her victory in CaliforniaJayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images / Flashscore

Our regular tennis feature, The Base Line, is back for the 2026 season, as we look to keep you up to date with the relentless and fast-paced nature of the ATP and WTA Tours. Who were crowned champions, who struggled to make an impact, and what moments stood out over the past fortnight in California?

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Title winners

It was a case of third time lucky for women's world number one Aryna Sabalenka, who claimed a long-awaited first Indian Wells title after battling through an epic contest with Elena Rybakina to prevail 3-6, 6-3, 7-6(6).

Having lost the 2023 final to the Kazakh, as well as last year's showpiece to Mirra Andreeva, Sabalenka finally tasted success in the Californian desert, as she fought off the challenge of Rybakina to capture her 23rd WTA crown.

The Belarusian was forced to dig deep on several occasions, coming from a break down in the second set, while also saving a championship point when trailing 6-5 in the deciding set tie-break.

Sabalenka refused to buckle under pressure, however, producing some inspired tennis to claw her way back into the match and secure a second title of 2026 following Brisbane in January.

Victory not only avenges her 2023 Indian Wells final loss to Rybakina, but also ends a streak of four consecutive WTA Tour final defeats when up against the Kazakh, including the 2025 WTA Finals and 2026 Australian Open.

"I guess it all comes with experience," Sabalenka said post-match. "With so many finals that I have lost, they also teach me a lot of things that basically the game is never done till it's done."

Sabalenka will now head into her Miami Open title defence looking to complete the 'Sunshine Double', while Rybakina rises to a career-high world number two, overtaking Iga Swiatek in the rankings.

On the men's side of the tournament at Indian Wells, world number two Jannik Sinner secured a milestone victory over Daniil Medvedev in a high-quality final, as the Italian became just the third man in history to complete the full set of ATP Masters 1000 hard-court titles.

The 24-year-old joins legendary duo Novak Djokovic and Roger Federer on that esteemed list, underlining his rising status in the sport, as he moves to 25 career titles and counting.

Sinner's 7-6(6), 7-6(4) triumph over Medvedev in Sunday's showpiece was another demonstration of the Italian's ruthless efficiency in the key moments, as he rallied from 4-0 down in the second-set tie-break to reel off seven straight points and clinch victory.

It was a match of narrow margins, with neither player losing their serve throughout the contest, while Sinner won an incredible 91% of points behind his first delivery.

"I kept believing and kept pushing," the Italian said when asked about his tie-break turnaround. "I went for my shots a little more."

Despite defeat, Medvedev can take comfort in returning to the top 10, as he leads the Tour with the most wins (18) in 2026, including his remarkable performance to dispatch Carlos Alcaraz in the semi-finals.

Sinner celebrates with the trophy
Sinner celebrates with the trophyJayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images

By not dropping a set in California, Sinner became the first man to win successive Masters 1000 titles without losing a set since the series began in 1990 - following on from his impressive run to the Paris crown in November.

The Italian has now cut the gap to rival Alcaraz at the top of the rankings, and with no points to defend at upcoming Masters 1000 events in Miami, Monte-Carlo and Madrid, he'll certainly be targeting a return to world number one ahead of the French Open.

Biggest strugglers

Former top-10 player Emma Navarro endured yet another frustrating tournament at Indian Wells, with the American losing her opening match to Sonay Kartal in three sets, 6-1, 3-6, 7-6(2).

The 24-year-old spurned a match point against the Brit, as well as twice failing to serve it out in the decider, as she slumped to a seventh defeat in her last nine outings dating back to mid-January.

Following her early exit, Navarro entered the Austin Challenger a few days later in the hope of finding some form, but her campaign was immediately ended by Lulu Sun in the first round.

Olympic champion Zheng Qinwen was another notable name to lose early in California, as the Chinese star fell to Croatia’s Antonia Ruzic 6-4, 7-5 at the first hurdle.

Meanwhile, on the men’s side of the tournament, former world number six Hubert Hurkacz continues to struggle on his return from knee surgery, with the Pole suffering a fifth successive first-round defeat after losing in straight sets to Aleksandar Kovacevic.

Having shown some promising signs at the start of the year at the United Cup, Hurkacz’s form has since nosedived, leaving him as low as 75th in the latest ATP rankings.

Following his defeat to Kovacevic at Indian Wells, Hurkacz entered the Cap Cana Challenger in the Dominican Republic in a bid to restore some confidence, but the 29-year-old’s struggles were further compounded with a 6-2, 6-4 loss to Mattia Bellucci.

There were also early exits in California for Lorenzo Musetti, Andrey Rublev and Stefanos Tsitsipas, with the latter falling outside the top 50 for the first time since 2018.

Standout moment

Andreeva’s title defence at Indian Wells came to an ugly end in the third round, as the Russian teenager was stunned by doubles specialist Katerina Siniakova.

Despite edging a tight opening set, the 18-year-old was unable to contain her emotions in a rollercoaster affair, with Siniakova recovering from the brink of defeat to win 4-6, 7-6(5), 6-3 in just under three hours.

The contest ended with Siniakova hitting a shot that dribbled over the net via the net cord, sparking a bad-tempered reaction from Andreeva, who threw her racket as she approached the net before gesturing and appearing to swear at the crowd as she departed the court.

Andreeva smashes her racket during her third-round defeat
Andreeva smashes her racket during her third-round defeatJayne Kamin-Oncea / Imagn Images

It was another alarming outburst from the teenage sensation, who has often struggled to keep her emotions in check throughout the early stages of her burgeoning career.

Following the Siniakova loss in California, Andreeva admitted it was an area she needed to address moving forward as she looks to become a mainstay in the top 10.

“I’m not really proud of how I managed it,” the Russian said. “Those are the things that I really need to work on soon.”

Best rallies

Jack Draper and Djokovic went blow-for-blow in their match-of-the-season contender in the fourth round, with the 38-year-old Serb eventually falling short, despite winning this epic 26-shot rally at the start of the decider.

Alcaraz was second-best in his semi-final loss to Medvedev, but the Spaniard still managed to produce a customary moment of brilliance with this ferocious forehand winner.

Upcoming events

Attention now shifts to the second part of the ‘Sunshine Double’ in Miami, where the world’s best ATP and WTA players will be battling it out for the prestigious 1000 crown.

The action gets underway on Tuesday, with defending champion Sabalenka the heavy favourite on the women’s side, while rising star Jakub Mensik will be determined to defend as many points as possible following his breakthrough run to the men’s title 12 months ago.

Last year’s runner-up, Djokovic, is a notable absentee from the ATP field in Miami, with the six-time former champion pulling out of the tournament due to a right shoulder injury.

Check out the full WTA draw in Miami here, and the final stages of ATP qualifying here.

Danny Clark
Danny ClarkFlashscore News
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