OPINION: Reasons for Sweden to be positive despite Dutch dismantling

Alexander Isak during Sweden's 5-1 loss
Alexander Isak during Sweden's 5-1 lossBreton/NurPhoto / Shutterstock Editorial / Profimedia

Midsummer's day would have never felt so long for Sweden fans, as they watched their side concede again and again to a Netherlands team that exploited their defensive frailties in a 5-1 win in Group F in Houston.

Two goals for Brian Brobbey early in the first half, two more for Cody Gakpo early in the second, and one for Crysencio Summerville late on after Anthony Elanga grabbed a consolation made for painful viewing for Graham Potter.

In the opposite dugout, Ronald Koeman watched on as his team selection and game plan worked a treat. The first three Dutch goals came by getting the ball out wide and putting low crosses in behind the three Swedish centre-backs for the forwards to tap home.

Blagult have now gone an unlucky 13 games without a clean sheet; conceded five in a World Cup match for the first time since the 1958 Final and suffered their heaviest World Cup defeat since a 7-1 mauling at the hands of Brazil in 1950.

However, as Flashscore is about to demonstrate, it's not all doom and gloom for the Swedes. Here are the positives to take after Netherlands 5-1 Sweden.

Supercomputer says "yes"

Sweden became the first side in World Cup history to follow a 5-1 win with a 5-1 loss in their first two matches. Their thumping win over Tunisia was always likely to go a long way to determining if the Swedes made it out of the group, and it is looking more and more likely so now.

Tunisia's 4-0 loss to Japan, plus the decision by FIFA to make head-to-head results the first tiebreaker for sides finishing level on points means Sweden are now guaranteed to finish at least third in the group, regardless of what happens in the final round of Group F matches.

Sweden will have to beat Japan to improve on that third place, but even defeat could see them progress as one of the eight best third-placed teams. At the midpoint of the whole Group Stage - with half the teams having played twice and the other half once - Sweden are currently ranked first of the 12 teams currently sitting third in their respective groups, with three points, a goal difference of zero and six goals scored.

Match stats
Match statsOpta Stats Perform

The ninth best of the third-ranked sides at present are Bosnia & Herzegovina, who have one point from their two games and a goal difference of -3.

The Swedes are highly likely to slip a few places before taking to the pitch again, and the criteria needed to finish at least eighth is only going to get tougher, but Sweden are still in a healthy position to go through.

Don't just take our word for it - ask the Opta supercomputer! After crunching all the numbers, the data model has given Sweden a 93.62% chance of making it to the knockout stages, even after the defeat to the Netherlands.

With their playoff wins in March, Sweden showed that what came before in the qualifiers had no impact. If they do make it to the Round of 32, a similar approach to forgetting what has come before will be required - a perfect excuse to put yesterday's result behind them.

Substitutes making an impact

For the second match in a row either side of the Mexico-Texas border, Swedish substitutes came off the bench to have an impact on proceedings.

Elanga's well-taken goal just before the hour mark came four minutes after he came on, and while that wasn't nearly as immediate as Mattias Svanberg's strike against Tunisia mere seconds after his introduction, Sweden again proved that Potter has options that can make a difference.

Making the score 4-1 in a 5-1 defeat may not feel like much of a difference, but given how Sweden were putting the Oranje under pressure (more on that in a moment), that goal kept the game alive for the next few minutes at least.

Potter has plenty of players staking a claim for a starting berth against Japan, who in turn will be wary of who might come on and change the game when the sides meet in Dallas.

Continuing to create

They may have conceded five, but there is every reason to believe that Sweden could have scored just as many, if not more, at the other end. 

Sweden had 16 shots compared to 10 for the Netherlands over 90 minutes, and also led the shots on target count, 8-7.

Fresh from two goals against Tunisia, Yasin Ayari had five shots in the match, more than any other player, while Alexander Isak, who assisted the goal, created the most chances and had the most touches in the attacking third, but a string of saves from Bart Verbruggen prevented the match from turning into a goal-fest.

Momentum
MomentumOpta Stats Perform

An expected goals count of 1.01 suggested Sweden got exactly what they deserved for the quality of shots they were generating, but with their shaky back line, attack really is the best form of defence for Sweden, and if they continue to plug away against Japan and - potentially - in the Round of 32, they will surely be rewarded with more goals sooner rather than later.

Such was the Swedish momentum for large portions of the match - particularly after the first hydration break and for much of the second half - that not only did Elanga's goal feel justified, but many watching on expected more to follow for Sweden, and they can count themselves unlucky to lose by four in the end.

Follow Sweden at the 2026 World Cup on Flashscore.

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