At the halfway point of the campaign, the Edinburgh club sit first on 41 points, three clear of Celtic and six ahead of Rangers, with all three having played 19 matches. That is still an enviable position, yet the margins are tightening, and the narrative has subtly shifted since the winter break.
Celtic have proved more fallible than some assumed, but Hearts’ grip on first place has loosened, and Rangers are quietly reasserting themselves. The question is no longer simply whether Hearts can fend off the reigning champions, but whether they can withstand a sustained challenge from both sides of Glasgow.
Recruitment key to Hearts’ rise
The fact that Hearts are even a part of this conversation remains one of the stories of the season; they were the first non-Old Firm side to lead the table at Christmas since 1993, a reminder of just how entrenched the duopoly has been.
Tony Bloom’s £9.86 million investment over the summer, coupled with the influence of Jamestown Analytics on recruitment, was initially greeted with scepticism. Bloom’s talk of breaking the Glaswegian grip "in 10 years" sounded fanciful in August. A few months later, it appears rather less so.
11 new players arrived from markets as varied as Iceland and Portugal, headlined by the club-record signing of Ageu from Santa Clara for £1.7 million. Others, such as Claudio Braga and Alexandros Kyziridis, recruited from Norway’s second tier and the Slovak league, respectively, have adapted quickly.
The results were striking. Hearts did not lose a league match until the end of November (1-0 to Aberdeen), and they beat both Rangers and Celtic along the way. Those victories laid the foundation for their current position at the summit, yet the momentum has not been entirely smooth. A recent 3-2 defeat at Hibernian served as a reminder of how quickly things can turn, and their form around November was less convincing than their league position suggested.
Celtic and Rangers on different trajectories
Celtic, meanwhile, have not mounted the relentless charge many expected. Wilfried Nancy’s early days at Parkhead were difficult, with four defeats in his opening four matches, including a loss to Hearts, prompting familiar grumblings from the stands post-Brendan Rodgers.
There were signs of improvement before Christmas, particularly in the wins over Aberdeen and Livingston, but any sense of a full-blown resurgence was checked by a 2-0 defeat to Motherwell. Celtic remain second on 38 points, firmly in the hunt but still searching for consistency.
Rangers, by contrast, appear a little steadier. Their 2-1 victory over League Cup winners St Mirren has taken them to 35 points, and while they still have ground to make up, they appear more capable of applying sustained pressure than earlier in the season.
What the numbers say about Hearts
Unfortunately, and somewhat predictably for Hearts, their league position is somewhat fortunate when considering the underlying metrics.
As of December 29, they were third in xG (31), third in big chances created (45), third in shots on target per 90 minutes (5.3), and second in touches in the opposition box (548). That’s all fine. Celtic, especially, have a lot more of the ball in their games, while Hearts are more willing to give up possession and hit sides on the counter.
It’s their defensive numbers that are a bit more of an issue. Hearts are joint-first for tackles per 90 (18.2), alongside Falkirk, who are currently eighth in the Premiership, 10th for xG conceded, so they’re conceding more high-value chances than Celtic and Rangers, and sixth for clearances per 90 (31.2).
Essentially, Hearts are pretty busy defensively, and they're conceding goals on par with both Celtic and Rangers, 17 compared to 18 and 16, respectively. These are not 'end of the world' numbers, but it's all very finely balanced, and Celtic have experience on their side.
Verdict
Hearts remain in control of their own destiny. A three-point cushion at the top of the table is no small thing, and Tynecastle has already proven a difficult place for the league’s heavyweights to visit.
But Celtic are close enough to strike despite their recent setbacks, and Rangers are gathering momentum.
For Hearts, excellence will be required not in flashes, but week after week. If they are to complete one of Scottish football’s great modern upsets, there will be little room for error in the second half of the season.