Why Pep Guardiola's potential replacement at Man City could be on a hiding to nothing

Man City manager Pep Guardiola during a recent UCL game vs Galatasaray
Man City manager Pep Guardiola during a recent UCL game vs GalatasarayMark Cosgrove/News Images / Avalon / Profimedia

It would appear that big changes could be afoot at Manchester City.

Though it would send shockwaves through the world of football, rumours are once again gathering pace that Pep Guardiola could leave his position as first-team manager at the end of the current campaign.

Informal talks taking place?

Whilst nothing has been made official as of this moment, well-placed sources appear to be indicating that discreet discussions are taking place with the representatives of potential successors, suggesting that the club are indeed preparing for Pep's departure.

Of course, it can't be overlooked that by the end of the 2025/26 season, Guardiola will have been at the helm for 10 often arduous years.

Pep Guardiola quote
Pep Guardiola quoteOpta by Stats Perform

After just four seasons at Barcelona, he took a year's sabbatical before pitching up at Bayern Munich. where three seasons in Bavaria were enough.

So, City's board and supporters have to be eternally grateful that Pep has stayed in his current position as long as he has, and will surely understand and appreciate why he would leave, if indeed that is proven to be the case.

Similar to the end of Sir Alex's reign

In many respects, there are echoes of the end of Sir Alex Ferguson's reign at Manchester United.

Not just a serial winner leaving the club, but a personality that was imposing, and who imposed upon every facet of the club to help make the team successful.

No stone unturned in the search for consistency. For glory. For perfection.

As with Sir Alex, Guardiola is going to be a very difficult act to follow indeed. Just ask David Moyes, Louis van Gaal, Jose Mourinho, Ole Gunnar Solskjaer, Ralf Rangnick, Erik ten Hag and Ruben Amorim

The Catalans' managerial record is, frankly, astonishing and gives some sort of perspective as to what any new City incumbent needs to try and replicate.

Pep's incredible record in the Premier League

Only recently, when his side triumphed 2-0 against Galatasaray in the Champions League, did Guardiola celebrate his 400th win in all competitions as manager at City, a landmark that he had achieved quicker than any other manager in English top-flight history.

To give context to just how incredible an achievement it is, it took Pep only 569 games to achieve the feat, whereas Arsene Wenger needed 696 matches, and Sir Alex required 732.

That victory also gave him 180 more wins than legendary City manager, Les McDowall (1950-1963), and was a 117th win in the UCL, only seven less than Carlo Ancelotti’s record in the premier European competition (124).

Across his entire City career, he's only failed to win against Al Hilal, Wigan Athletic, Lyon, Bodo/Glimt, Bayer Leverkusen, and Celtic.

40 trophies won as a manager

40 trophies won as a manager, since his beginnings with Barcelona B, is the gold standard to which others will need to aspire (and emulate), and it also can't be overlooked that Pep has changed the way that the game is played in all of LaLiga, Bundesliga and the Premier League.

The three names that have been mentioned at this stage as potential successors to the Catalan are Xabi Alonso, Enzo Maresca and Cesc Fabregas.

All three have ties to Guardiola in some way, of course. 

Maresca was one of his assistants at City and therefore knows exactly how the club works, where it's heading, etc., and being out of work makes him a stand-out candidate.

Alonso is also looking for a job, played under Pep at Bayern, but could end up back at Liverpool if the Reds decide to dispense with Arne Slot.

Fabregas has worked wonders at Como, who currently sit sixth in Serie A, just six points behind second-placed AC Milan, and it's understood he has an agreement that he would only leave the Italians if a big European club came calling.

Potential replacements share the same philosophy

Cesc, belatedly teamed up with Guardiola during the final season of the latter's time at Barcelona, of course, and, just like Alonso and Maresca, shares the same footballing philosophy as his contemporary.

Alonso has a record-breaking, unbeaten Bundesliga season with Leverkusen as well as an ill-fated spell with Real Madrid on his current managerial CV, whilst Maresca can proudly look back at winning the Championship with Leicester and the Club World Cup with Chelsea, even if his time with the Blues ended acrimoniously.

However, all three managers are not Pep Guardiola.

It's that which could be the problem for the City board and the supporters in exactly the same way it was and has been for cross-city rivals, United.

Even now, some 13 years after Sir Alex retired from first-team management with the Red Devils, there is still talk of 'getting back to the glory years' under the Scot's stewardship, and the club's social media is always the first to acknowledge his leadership of the club - each and every year since his retirement.

That's long been a millstone around the neck of any manager who has since stepped into the role at the Theatre of Dreams.

So, if City don't want to find themselves heading down the same rabbit hole, then they need to think long and hard about the new appointment in the first instance, and then not encumber whoever is chosen with the pressure of being the 'new Pep.'

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore
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