Chelsea clearly thought they had managed to sign upgrades on Jackson when they allowed him to leave on loan, even if they tried to cancel his move to Bayern Munich at the last minute when Liam Delap got injured.
It wasn’t an entirely unreasonable assumption. Joao Pedro truly looked like one of the best players on the planet throughout Chelsea’s Club World Cup triumph, and after some bright moments, Delap felt like the missing piece to their in-possession puzzle.
Now, Pedro is largely being played out of position due to Delap’s ongoing injury problems, and Marc Guiu has a lot of potential, but he’s not ready to lead the line for a side chasing a Champions League spot.
So, with Jackson struggling for minutes at Bayern Munich, should Chelsea give him another chance?
How Nicolas Jackson compares to Joao Pedro and Liam Delap
The 24-year-old is probably never going to be a 20-25 goal-a-season striker for a top Premier League side, but that doesn’t mean he doesn’t have plenty of good aspects to his game. Jackson is a hybrid of Delap and Pedro.
Like Delap, Jackson is best when he’s running into channels. He’s very quick, and more often than not, he times his runs well, catching defenders that play a high line off guard and fashioning more clear-cut chances.
All of that sounds great, but it’s what happens when Jackson gets into those positions that’s the real issue. He scored ten Premier League goals for Chelsea last season, but he underperformed his xG by 2.34.
That’s not for lack of trying, credit where credit is due, Jackson was persistent, but nine goals from 68 shots inside the box isn’t a great return. In theory, Delap is essentially Jackson but better at finishing.
His numbers at Ipswich last season would certainly imply that. Delap scored 11 goals from 48 shots inside the box for a side that created far less than Chelsea. Where he struggles is playing with his back to goal when facing a low block.
That’s where Pedro is at his best. Surprisingly combative for a Brazilian forward, Pedro is more of a nine-and-a-half than a true nine, which is where he’s been forced to play much of his Chelsea career so far.
Playing Pedro just off of Jackson would be fantastic. The former Brighton man has created the most big chances for Chelsea in the Premier League (5), has a 79.8% pass accuracy rate, and has won possession in the final third 10 times.
Jackson’s 2024-25 sample size is a bit bigger, but again, the numbers suggest a similar style of play. In the Premier League last season, he created 28 chances, had a pass accuracy rate of 76.7%, and won possession in the final third 20 times.
Why isn’t it working out at Bayern Munich?
Opportunities have certainly been scarce for Jackson under Vincent Kompany. The Senegal international has played just 391 Bundesliga minutes, starting five of his games and still managing to bag three goals.
That’s not a bad return for a player who has just arrived in a new league, the issue is it’s not as good as Harry Kane’s. Having a man who’s scored 31 goals before Christmas ahead of you isn’t exactly going to afford you many chances.
The other issue was the now obsolete €65million obligation to buy that would have triggered if Jackson had started 40 games for Bayern. It was always going to be very unlikely that it would be activated, but now, with fewer than 40 games remaining in the season, it’s impossible.
Tactically, his role at Bayern is very much the same as it was at Chelsea. Kompany clearly knows Jackson’s strengths and his flaws, he just can’t get enough minutes to make much of an impact.
Verdict
Recalling Jackson, if possible, in January would be a smart move for Chelsea. Not only would they have a striker with bona fide Premier League credentials to provide competition, but he would also arguably suit their current style better than Delap and Pedro.
It’s not a permanent solution, Chelsea will still need to sign a top-level striker if they want to be competing for major silverware anytime soon, but it’s starting to look like letting Jackson go was a mistake.