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It’s crunchtime in the UEFA Champions League knockout round second legs. Followers have four matches on Wednesday morning, including Newcastle v Qarabag at St James’ Park. The Magpies hold a five-goal advantage in that game. There are another four to enjoy on Thursday, including PSG v Monaco in Paris, with the holders protecting a narrow 3-2 advantage.
With each match broadcast on Stan Sport and tracked live on Flashscore, an explosive two mornings of play await. Most of the ties remain in the balance, with the exception of Newcastle following last week’s stunning 6-1 win. Juventus trail Galatasaray 5-2 on aggregate, meaning the Italians must defeat the Turks by at least four goals to avoid a surprise UCL elimination.
The leading online bookmakers featured on this page offer over 100 pre-match betting markets on each of the knockout rounds. Need help picking a play? Flashscore’s gambling writer Frank Monkhouse offers his pre-match predictions.
Atletico Madrid v Club Brugge, Wednesday, 4:45am AEDT
The show begins in Spain, where Atletico Madrid face Club Brugge in a shootout. The pair shared a six-goal draw in Belgium last week, with Brugge fighting back from 2-0 down at the break. Madrid won’t be happy leaking three goals on the road, but they now hold the home advantage, and I’m confident they’ll make it count. We’re backing Madrid to win the match.
Atletico twice led their opponents on the scoreboard, racing into a 2-0 lead before going 3-1 in the 80th minute. Diego Simeone’s team recently thrashed Barcelona 4-0 and Mallorca 3-0 at this venue. They also beat Espanyol 4-2 here on Saturday. The locals have gone through in nine of their last 10 two-legged UCL ties when avoiding defeat away from home in the first leg. Back Atletico Madrid to beat Brugge.
Tip: Atletico Madrid win @ 1.36 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You need Madrid to out-score Brugge on Wednesday morning in Spain.
Bayer Leverkusen v Olympiacos, Wednesday, 7:00am AEDT
It’s Germany v Greece as Bayer Leverkusen aim to finish the job against Olympiacos. The visitors performed well in the group stages, and I expected them to hold their own at home last week. Unfortunately for fans, Olympiacos had a goal ruled out in the first half and were beaten by two strikes from Patrik Schick in the second period. Leverkusen are in complete control.
Their win wasn’t anywhere near as convincing as the bare results suggest, but Bayer Leverkusen deserve their lead, and we stick with the Bundesliga giants on Wednesday morning. Bayer had 57.8% of the ball possession, five shots on target, and two goals. The Factory XI have won their last four home games, scoring 11 goals and conceding none. Back Bayer to go through.
Tip: Bayer Leverkusen win @ 1.75 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You need Bayer Leverkusen to defeat Olympiacos again.
Inter Milan v Bodo/Glimt, Wednesday, 7:00am AEDT
Inter Milan, hope to go one better than last season’s silver medal behind PSG. The Italians face an uphill struggle to deny an opponent that is protecting a 3-1 lead from the first leg. Bodo/Glimt’s UCL fairytale continued when adding Inter to their hit-list, after beating Man City and Atletico Madrid. Will that run continue at the expense of Milan on Wednesday?
Inter Milan had the lion’s share of possession last week, finishing with 57.6%, but they were wasteful in the final third, with four shots on target and one goal from 15 attempts. They know better is required at the San Siro, and I expect them to beat the Norwegians, who remain in their off-season. Milan have beaten Juventus and Torino at this venue in February. They also made light work of Lecce on the road at the weekend.
Tip: Inter Milan win @ 1.22 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Inter Milan must defeat Bodo, regardless of which team goes through.
Newcastle v Qarabag, Wednesday, 7:00am AEDT
Only one team can breathe easy and begin planning for a place in the next round after the opening leg, and that’s Newcastle United. The English Premier League side blasted Qarabag 6-1 last Thursday, with Anthony Gordon scoring four goals in a dominant first half. Despite their lead, the home crowd will turn out in numbers and demand another high-scoring win.
Newcastle haven’t been at their best in the Premier League this year, but they did beat PSV 3-0 at St James’ Park last month, after downing both Leeds United and Crystal Palace in the Premier League. The aggregate score means the Magpies can play with freedom and enjoy the occasion. Qarabag have never won in England, failing to score in their last four visits.
Tip: Newcastle -1 handicap @ 1.40 (bet365)
Bet explanation: You need the home team to win by two or more goals.
Atalanta v Borussia Dortmund, Thursday, 4:45am AEDT
Moving to the next day of play from the Champions League playoff second legs, Italy face off against Germany. Atalanta will enjoy the backing of a home crowd, but the Serie A side trail 2-0 on aggregate. Dortmund were the better team last week, and their performance suggests there are more goals in this tie. Bet on Borussia Dortmund to finish the job.
Dortmund were two goals ahead at the break, and missed chances to pull further clear. The tie remains in the balance, and things will get interesting if the hosts score first in this rematch. The beaten team enjoyed more possession in the second half, but couldn’t make it count. Dortmund have progressed in seven of nine UCL knockout ties when winning the first leg. They warmed up for this test by sharing four goals with Leipzig on Sunday morning.
Tip: Borussia Dortmund win or draw @ 1.70 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If Borussia Dortmund can avoid defeat on Thursday morning, you’ll boost your betting balance.
Juventus v Galatasaray, Thursday, 7:00am AEDT
Juventus have a mountain to climb if they are to overturn an embarrassing 5-2 defeat in Turkey. The Old Lady were 2-1 ahead at the interval, but had Cabal sent off for a second bookable offence on 67 minutes, and quickly fell apart. Galatasaray scored four goals in the second half to turn the game on its head and put one foot in the next phase of the UCL.
There’s no denying that the red card impacted the result, but Juve were poor in defence, and that has been the story of their season. The home team conceded three against Inter Milan, leaked two goals to Lazio, and another three when visiting Atalanta. Como scored two here on Saturday in Serie A. With that poor defence in mind, we avoid picking sides and settle on both teams to score at the Juventus Stadium.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.57 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Your bet wins if both Juventus and Galatasaray score at least one goal each in the second leg.
PSG v Monaco, Thursday, 7:00am AEDT
It’s an all-French Ligue 1 clash in Paris as PSG and Monaco renew their rivalry. You may remember we backed Monaco in the double chance market last week. Followers were sitting pretty with Monaco 2-0 up after 18 minutes. The defending champions showed character to get level at 2-2 before the break, winning the match with a strike from Desire Doue on 67 minutes.
The first leg was a classic, and I expect more goals in the rematch. It’s worth knowing that Monaco had a man sent off last Wednesday, which certainly didn’t help their cause. Scoring two goals against the French and European champions is no mean feat, and I’m backing them to find the net again here. PSG won 4-1 when hosting Monaco last. It's also worth knowing that these sides scored three goals each at the weekend, and we take BTTS again.
Tip: Both teams to score @ 1.61 (bet365)
Bet explanation: If PSG and Monaco score at least one goal each, your bet wins.
Real Madrid v Benfica, Thursday, 7:00am AEDT
We’ve saved the best for last, finishing off with a bet on Real Madrid v Benfica in Spain. The first leg ended in a narrow 1-0 win for Blancos, the competition’s most successful team. It was a bad-tempered match that threatened to boil over more than once, meaning Madrid needed all their big-match experience and professionalism to hold on for a solid away win.
The updated head-to-head stats available at Flashscore show Real Madrid and Benfica have met five times previously, and twice this season. Benfica beat Madrid 4-2 in the league phase, but were outplayed by Real when it mattered most. Madrid beat Sociedad 4-1 in their last home match, and also thumped Monaco 6-1 here last month. Bet on Real Madrid to win.
Tip: Real Madrid win @ 1.45 (bet365)
Bet explanation: Real Madrid must score a home win over Benfica in the second leg.
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The odds, correct at the time of publication, are subject to change.