Lionel Messi and Cristiano Ronaldo's monopoly over the trophy has gradually come to an end, with Ousmane Dembele and Rodri clinching the title over the last two years.
That makes it a bit more unpredictable each time the award comes around - especially with a World Cup in 2026 adding extra stakes.
As 2026 rolls in and given that the award has shifted to a season-by-season basis rather than year-by-year like previously, it seems an appropriate time to take a look at the current front-runners.
Harry Kane (Bayern Munich, England)
Harry Kane is one of three clear current front-runners for the Ballon d'Or after a stellar campaign so far for Bayern Munich.
As a general rule, the trophy is likely to go to players who perform well across several competitions, mainly their domestic league, the Champions League, and, for 2025/26, the World Cup.
Bayern are currently unbeaten in the Bundesliga and nine points clear at the top of the table - so it's safe to assume Kane probably already has that trophy wrapped up.
The striker has also netted a staggering 19 league goals already, while also bagging five in Europe and five in the German Cup.
That sort of form puts him in prime contention for the Ballon d'Or - if it continues and he can collect the trophies to go with it.
Bayern are one of the favourites for the Champions League, but a starring role for England at the World Cup could tip the scales in Kane's favour should the Three Lions win the tournament.
Erling Haaland (Manchester City, Norway)
Manchester City goal machine Erling Haaland always feels like he will get overlooked for these sorts of individual accolades because he's much more of a pure goalscorer than an all-round specialist.
But the level at which he converts chances in arguably the toughest league in the world is almost unprecedented, and Haaland's form in front of goal makes him undeniably one of the best players in the world.
The Norwegian has already bagged 19 goals in the Premier League as well as six in the Champions League and a quite simply staggering 16 in World Cup qualifying - although four of those came last season.
His form for Norway spearheaded a surprise qualification for the World Cup, and a good debut tournament for the striker could seriously boost his Ballon d'Or chances.
However, given that Norway's chances of winning the tournament in the summer are quite slim, Haaland would need a big haul of club trophies to stick out ahead of his competitors.
City are keeping pace with Arsenal in the Premier League and remain a threat in both domestic cup competitions - but will face plenty of challengers in Europe.
Kylian Mbappe (Real Madrid, France)
The third main candidate for the Ballon d'Or is Real Madrid and France forward Kylian Mbappe.
Like Kane and Haaland, Mbappe is scoring goals at an incredible rate with 18 already in La Liga, plus nine in the Champions League - making him the top scorer in both competitions.
His individual performances have been integral to Madrid's form so far, with the Spanish giants second in their domestic division and on the brink of qualifying for the Champions League knockout stages.
Mbappe is also a key part of a France side that will be tipped to go far at the World Cup and could even see himself become the tournament's all-time leading goalscorer in the summer.
A few trophies, coupled with scoring records like that, could swing things in the Frenchman's favour in the Ballon d'Or chase.
Lamine Yamal (Barcelona, Spain)
Lamine Yamal has an outside chance at winning the accolade, although this season might be just too soon for the Barcelona youngster.
The winger is widely regarded as the best young talent on the planet and has continued his ride to stardom with 23 goal contributions for club and country in 2025/26 so far.
Barcelona currently sit top of La Liga and could go far in the Champions League, while Spain are likely the favourites to lift the World Cup in the summer.
A continuation of his current form and a large haul of silverware could see Yamal clinch the Ballon d'Or aged just 19 (18 now, but he will be 19 by the time the award is announced).
The more likely scenario, however, is that Yamal takes home the Kopa Trophy award (best under-21 in the world) for a third time.
Lionel Messi (Inter Miami, Argentina)
Lionel Messi doesn't need another Ballon d'Or to add to his staggering collection of eight already, and in all honesty, it's highly unlikely he will win it again.
There is certainly something to be said, however, for the Argentine's form in the MLS during 2026.
Messi was named the league's MVP, top scorer and top assister after guiding Inter Miami to a maiden championship.
The fact that his performances were in a weaker division than everyone else, and the MLS campaign runs on a different schedule, likely rules out another win for the legend.
However, if Argentina clinch another World Cup with Messi the star once more, and those voting feel strongly enough in his favour, don't be shocked if another Ballon d'Or comes his way.