Everything to play for as Napoli host Chelsea in winner-takes-all Champions League tie

Napoli's squad warm up for the visit of Chelsea in the Champions League
Napoli's squad warm up for the visit of Chelsea in the Champions LeagueItaly Photo Press / Zuma Press / Profimedia

Wednesday night sees the final league phase games of the 2025/26 Champions League.

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One of the advantages of the new format is that there is an awful lot to play for for a number of the teams in the tournament.

No easing up until the final kick

Previously, in what was the group stage, games five and six could often be termed 'dead rubbers' purely for the fact that groups had often been decided by then.

Now, everything is in play until the final kick of the final game, and that's especially true for Napoli and Chelsea, who meet at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona.

Chelsea v Napoli - Head-to-head record
Chelsea v Napoli - Head-to-head recordOpta by Stats Perform

That's because the Blues currently find themselves in the eighth and final automatic qualification spot, and the Partnopei are only outside of the playoff positions on goal difference.

For Napoli, the difference between Serie A and European form couldn't be more stark.

Napoli in danger of dropping out of European competition

Antonio Conte's side has slipped a little off the pace in Italy and trail Inter by nine points, though up until recently had been going toe-to-toe with the clubs at the top of the table.

That they find themselves in 25th place in the Champions League table below the likes of Qarabag is, with the greatest respect, nowhere near good enough.

Lose to the West Londoners, and they'll be out of Europe entirely, and for a squad that includes last season's Serie A player of the year, Scott McTominay, as well as Kevin De Bruyne and Romelu Lukaku et al, that's not acceptable.

Chelsea have had their own struggles, but theirs have come in the dugout, with Club World Cup-winning manager, Enzo Maresca, making way for Liam Rosenior after a difference of opinion with the club's board.

Chelsea need a win to guarantee progression

The Stamford Bridge outfit know that another three points in this fixture will guarantee their progression, but they'll also be aware that there are another five teams below them on the same points (13), as well as two teams on 12 points (Inter, Juventus) and Borussia Dortmund on 11 points.

The line between success and evident failure for the Blues (though a playoff position isn't such a bad consolation prize) is therefore obvious.

Chelsea and Napoli's current Champions League phase positions
Chelsea and Napoli's current Champions League phase positionsFlashscore

At worst, the playoffs would hand any teams a second bite of the cherry, whereas the Partnopei will have no such luck should they succumb to the Premier League side.

Both sides flattered to deceive in their last Champions League match, too. Chelsea could only crawl past a dogged Pafos 1-0 at Stamford Bridge, where the boos at full-time would not have been music to the ears of owners who themselves are under pressure from a demanding fan base.

Conte has only beaten his old side once

Napoli unexpectedly drew 1-1 away at Copenhagen, leaving them needing a victory on Wednesday.

They won't need reminding that the last time they met Chelsea, as it was the London side who walked away with a 4-1 victory in March 2012. Or that the visitors have scored in the seven games leading into this fixture.

Furthermore, Conte, up against his old side, who he's only beaten once since leaving (D1, L3), has overseen a period in which Napoli have won just one of their last 10 Champions League matches (D4 L5) against sides from one of Europe’s top five leagues (1-0 v Union Berlin).

The hosts are unbeaten at home in this season's UCL, though, with two wins and one draw, have lost just one of their last 20 home Champions League matches (W12 D7), a 3-2 defeat to Real Madrid, and are also unbeaten on their own patch in 25 matches in all competitions. 

The Blues haven't won away in this season's Champions League (D1, L2), and do have a poor record in Italy too, having only won one of their last nine UCL away games against Italian sides (D1 L7).

They are, however, currently enjoying their longest scoring run in European competitions (20 games and counting), and you have to go all the way back to April 2023 for the last time an opponent (also Real Madrid) last kept a clean sheet against them.

Ex-Man Utd men on fire in the UCL

McTominay will certainly be looked to again in terms of providing the game's key moments, given that he's managed four goals in his last five UCL appearances. 

In a strange quirk, another ex-Man Utd man, Rasmus Hojlund, has two of the three other goals Napoli have scored in this season's competition, though he's never managed a goal against the Blues in four appearances against them.

Napoli v Chelsea - Win probability
Napoli v Chelsea - Win probabilityFlashscore

For Chelsea, Estevao and Joao Pedro stand out, with the former having already scored three times in his debut season in the competition.

In terms of injuries, Napoli are definitely without Matteo Politano, Amir Rrahmani and Billy Gilmour, whilst former Chelsea man, De Bruyne, also misses out.

Cole Palmer faces a late fitness test for the Blues, who won't be able to call upon the services of Levi Colwill, Tosin Adarabioyo and Romeo Lavia.

Jason Pettigrove
Jason PettigroveFlashscore
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