Sabalenka vs Rybakina - 19:00 CET
Match news and form
Aryna Sabalenka has been invincible behind her serve throughout the tournament, and it remained the case against Linda Noskova in the semi-finals, where she prevailed 6-3, 6-4. With 11 aces and a 74% first-serve percentage, the top seed faced little trouble against the Czech and reached her third Indian Wells final as a result.
Overall, Sabalenka has lost just two service games in her five matches at the tournament and, in the process, dismissed the likes of former champion Naomi Osaka and Montreal champion Victoria Mboko. She consolidates her near-perfect win-loss record in the season to 16-1.
Sabalenka began the season with a title in Brisbane but was unable to conclude her time in Australia with a fifth career Grand Slam title, losing to Elena Rybakina in the Australian Open final. Nevertheless, she is the deserving world No. 1, having already played 11 finals since the start of 2025 and won five of them.
Elena Rybakina got tight towards the end of her semi-final when she lost three games in a row, but eventually steadied herself to defeat Elina Svitolina, 7-5, 6-4. The 2023 champion has therefore returned to the Indian Wells final after negotiating tricky matches against Hailey Baptiste and Jessica Pegula earlier in the week.
Rybakina is having an even better year than Sabalenka, having won her second career Grand Slam title at the Australian Open after beating three top-six players in the final rounds, including Sabalenka in the decider. However, she endured an unremarkable Middle East swing, including a retirement in Dubai.
Head-to-head
Sabalenka leads 8-7. However, Rybakina has won seven of their last eleven meetings, including the most recent ones in the finals of the WTA Finals and Australian Open.
Stats & facts
• Sabalenka has won 22 out of her 42 career title-match appearances, but only four of her last 10.
• Sabalenka suffered defeats in both of her previous final showings in Indian Wells, losing to Rybakina in 2023 and Mirra Andreeva in 2025.
• Rybakina stands 12-11 in career finals but has converted each of her last five, from Stuttgart 2024 to the Australian Open 2026, into trophies.
• Rybakina has won nine of her last 13 meetings with reigning world No. 1 players, with all victories coming against Iga Swiatek or Sabalenka.
Betting analysis
The tournament could not have asked for two more deserving players to compete for the trophy on Sunday. The head-to-head record suggests this match is likely to go down to the wire.
Rybakina already knows how to beat Sabalenka in the Indian Wells final, having done so in 2023. However, Sabalenka is playing slightly sharper tennis than the world No. 3 right now and is expected to eke out the trophy in three sets.
Sabalenka in 2026
Best results: Brisbane (title); Australian Open (final)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Brisbane (title); Australian Open (final)
Record: 16-1
Record in the last 10 matches: 9-1
Record on outdoor hard courts: 16-1
Record against top 10: 2-1 (career 57-43)
Record in WTA 1000 finals: 0-0 (career 9-4)
Record in finals: 1-1 (career 22-20)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (final)
Sabalenka at the BNP Paribas Open
Career record: 20-6
Best result: final (2023, 2025, 2026)
Last year's result: Final
Record in finals: 0-2
Preparation: None
Road to the final: Bye, Sakatsume (6-4, 6-2), Cristian (6-4, 6-1), (16) Osaka (6-2, 6-4), (10) Mboko (7-6, 6-4), (14) Noskova (6-3, 6-4)
Rybakina in 2026
Best results: Australian Open (title)
Best results on outdoor hard courts: Australian Open (title)
Record: 17-3
Record in the last 10 matches: 8-2
Record on outdoor hard courts: 17-3
Record against top 10: 5-0 (career 36-27)
Record in WTA 1000 finals: 0-0 (career 2-3)
Record in finals: 1-0 (career 12-11)
Grand Slams: Australian Open (title)
Rybakina at the BNP Paribas Open
Career record: 16-3
Best result: Title (2023)
Last year's result: Round of 16
Record in finals: 1-0
Preparation: Doha (quarter-finals), Dubai (round of 16)
Road to the final: Bye, Baptiste (7-6, 2-6, 6-2), (28) Kostyuk (6-4, 6-4), Kartal (6-4, 4-3 ret.), (5) Pegula (6-1, 7-6), (9) Svitolina (7-5, 6-4)