Match News and Current Form
France secured their seventh SNC crown of the 21st century last year and are currently the favourites to defend their crown, something they’ve only achieved once since the turn of the millennium, that being in 2006 and 2007. Following the conclusion of the 2025 SNC, Les Bleus went on to lose four tests in a row against New Zealand and South Africa, albeit the prior saw them send a weakened side to tour the Land of the Long White Cloud, before they ended the year on a high with comprehensive wins over Fiji and Australia. With the 2027 Rugby World Cup now in sight, France will be looking to stamp their authority with their identity firmly rooted in their flair, physicality, and offloading game, while their favourable schedule and cohort of new talent prove exactly why they’re the pre-tournament SNC favourites.
The selection headlines are dominated by one name, as coach Fabien Galthié welcomes back his captain and first-choice scrumhalf Antoine Dupont. Other stalwarts in his starting lineup include full-back and 2025 SNC top-points scorer Thomas Ramos, the ever dangerous Louis Bielle-Biarrey, while the forward pack boasts the experience of eighth man Anthony Jelonch, François Cros, and Charles Ollivon. Special mention must be made of Uini Atonio, who has had to retire from the game immediately following a cardiac event.
The mood in the Irish camp is far from what we have come accustomed to, as marquee losses at home to New Zealand and South Africa in last year’s November-held test matches have been called a sign of Ireland’s deteriorating global standing. Their back-to-back SNC titles in 2023 and 2024 seem a distant memory, as the murmurs that Andy Farrell’s squad peaked some time ago and are now stagnating are heard loud and clear across world rugby. One thing they do possess in writing is a remarkable away record over the last few years, having won 17 of their last 20 fixtures on foreign soil (L3).
The Irish come into the tournament battered and bruised before it has even begun, with injuries dominating Andy Farrell’s squad selection. He has still managed to field a somewhat experienced starting XV, with plenty of responsibility weighing on the shoulders of hooker Dan Sheehan, lock Tadhg Beirne, flanker Josh van der Flier, and eighth man and captain Caelan Doris to lead the forwards. The backs will be governed by scrumhalf Jamison Gibson-Park, supported by experienced Jacob Stockdale and centre Garry Ringrose.
Head-to-Head History
France have won four of the last six fixtures including last year’s encounter in Dublin (L2), while Ireland were victorious in their last trip to France in 2024 but haven’t won in Paris since 2018. A tight affair has become the norm with these two, with the average winning margin being less than seven points across the last ten H2Hs.
Hot Stats and Streaks
The second half has produced more points than the first in nine of France’s last 12 matches.
France have scored 30+ points in eight of their last nine home games.
Ireland have won the race to ten points in 35 of their last 45 tests.
Ireland have scored 20+ points in 19 of their last 20 matches on foreign soil.
Key Players to Watch and Missing Players
Last year’s Player of the Championship Louis Bielle-Biarrey will be looking to pick up where he left off, having scored a record-breaking eight tries in last year's SNC, including a brace against Ireland. Ireland’s main try scoring threat last year proved to be hooker Dan Sheehan, who has crossed the whitewash in each of his last two appearances against the French.
Fabien Galthié has made a statement with the exclusions of household names Gaël Fickou, Damien Penaud, and Gregory Alldritt from his squad for the entire tournament. Ireland’s big name absentees are mostly due to injury, including Andrew Porter, Tadhg Furlong, Hugo Keenan, and Robbie Henshaw, while James Lowe has been omitted entirely and Bundee Aki serving a suspension.
Betting Analysis
Five of the last six H2Hs produced more than 50 points, so we anticipate this one to clear over 50.5 total points.