Through seven games, the Flyers have been outscored 28–8. They have also been outshot 246–140.
It is arguably the worst start to a season in the analytics era, which dates back to 2007-08, and one of the worst shot differentials in NHL history at this stage of a season, with shot data available since 1959-60.
Last season’s success
The Flyers reached the second round of the playoffs last season, where they were swept by the Carolina Hurricanes. So what were the reasons behind their successful campaign?
Daniel Vladar was by far the biggest factor. During the regular season, he saved 13.8 goals above expected, ranking among the TOP 10 goalies in the league, according to MoneyPuck.com.
Another major factor was the Flyers’ excellent form from around mid-March onward. At that point, Philadelphia had just a 3.8% chance of reaching the playoffs.
The team made significant improvements to its defensive system, with Rick Tocchet taking advice from Peter DeBoer, now the head coach of the New York Islanders. At the same time, the duo of Matvei Michkov and Noah Cates was in outstanding form.
Last season, the Flyers allowed opponents to generate just 2.44 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five, the third-best mark in the NHL. Combined with Vladař’s outstanding performances, that made Philadelphia one of the league’s best defensive teams.
Michkov recorded an impressive 20 points (5+15) over his final 21 games of the regular season. Cates finished that stretch with 16 points (6+10). Their production was another key reason behind the Flyers’ successful campaign.
Dramatic decline
As mentioned above, the Flyers allowed just 2.44 expected goals per 60 minutes at five-on-five last season. This year, that figure has ballooned to a worrying 3.81.
Unsurprisingly, their offensive production at five-on-five has also declined significantly. Through seven games, Philadelphia has generated just 1.65 expected goals per 60 minutes. Last season, that number stood at 2.54.
The worst start in franchise history
We do not need advanced statistics to see that the Flyers have been playing terrible hockey. As already mentioned, they have been outshot 246-140.
Philadelphia has played 21 periods, excluding overtime. In only two of them did the Flyers register more shots on goal than their opponents: the first and second periods against the Ottawa Senators.
Their shot-attempt differential, measured by Corsi, is even more alarming: 238-389.
Going winless through the first seven games has set a new unwanted franchise record for Philadelphia.
Did every Flyers player suddenly forget how to play hockey? That seems hard to believe.
Tocchet was never the right choice
Danny Briere, the general manager, and Keith Jones, the president of hockey operations, took over in Philadelphia on May 11, 2023.
John Tortorella remained the head coach until March 2025. Brad Shaw took over for the remainder of the 2024–25 season, coaching nine games and collecting a respectable 12 points. Most importantly, Michkov recorded 12 points (6+6) during that stretch.
Despite those results, Briere and Jones decided not to continue with Shaw. After the season, they hired Tocchet instead.
That was a questionable decision given Tocchet’s reputation for working with young players.
In Arizona, Dylan Strome began his NHL career under Tocchet, averaging just 13:13 of ice time per game. Tocchet did not appear to trust him. During the first half of his second season under the Canadian coach, Strome was traded to Chicago, where he gradually developed into a legitimate TOP-6 centre.
Clayton Keller’s development under Tocchet was not exactly ideal either. He spent four seasons playing for him, averaging 17:35 of ice time per game. Interestingly, Tocchet gave Keller the least ice time during his final two seasons in Arizona, at 16:17 and 16:39 per game.
Keller’s most productive season under Tocchet came in the coach’s first year, 2017-18, when he recorded 65 points in 82 games. His production subsequently declined.
In his first two seasons after Tocchet’s departure, Keller recorded 63 points in 67 games and then 86 points in 82 games. He eventually established himself as a point-per-game player.
We can find similar stories in Vancouver.
Vasily Podkolzin played 42 games under Tocchet for the Canucks, averaging just 11:05 of ice time per night. In August 2024, the Russian forward was traded to the Edmonton Oilers for a fourth-round draft pick.
Podkolzin quickly became a regular in Edmonton’s lineup. Now in his third season with Edmonton, Podkolzin is skating on a line with Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl.
Elias Pettersson enjoyed the best season of his career in 2022-23, when he recorded an outstanding 102 points (39+63). Tocchet took over as Vancouver’s head coach in January 2023. In Tocchet’s first full season behind the bench, Pettersson’s production fell to 89 points. The following year, he managed just 45 points in 64 games.
It is no secret that Tocchet tried to change Pettersson’s game. He said the Swedish centre liked to slow things down but wanted him to play a more north-south style. The result? Pettersson’s overall game dropped dramatically.
Yes, Tocchet won the Jack Adams Award in 2023–24. However, it is worth noting that the Canucks posted a PDO of 102.5 that season, combining their shooting percentage and save percentage.
That was the highest figure in the league. In analytics, such an unusually high PDO can indicate that a team has benefited from an unsustainably high level of shooting and goaltending success, rather than its results being driven by the underlying system alone.
A figure that high is difficult to sustain, and Vancouver’s results regressed the following season. Its PDO dropped to 99.7, and the Canucks finished with 90 points, missing the playoffs.
After the 2024–25 season, the Flyers were nowhere near being a legitimate contender. Their priority should have been developing their young players properly, including Michkov, Tyson Foerster, Bobby Brink, Jamie Drysdale and Jett Luchanko. They were also in line for a high draft pick in June, which they used to select Porter Martone.
Yet Briere and Jones chose Tocchet.
Good draft means nothing without proper development
It is clear that the success or failure of the Flyers’ current rebuild/retool depends heavily on the development of Michkov and Martone. If those two prospects fail to become franchise players, Briere and Jones’ entire plan could fall apart.
And the current season is once again raising questions about whether Tocchet is the right coach to develop Philadelphia’s most talented young players.
Last season, Michkov was given third-line minutes. Tocchet and Flyers insiders defended that decision by arguing that the Russian forward had not prepared properly over the summer and arrived at training camp out of shape.
Tocchet also said that Michkov liked to slow the game down but wanted him to play a more north-south style. Sound familiar?
The 21-year-old took the criticism on board and prepared much better during the summer of 2026. He did everything the Flyers had asked of him. He reportedly lost around 30 pounds and received praise for his work during training camp.
His reward? Just 15:06 of ice time per game, making him the Flyers’ seventh-most-used forward.
Porter Martone is playing even less, averaging just 13:34 per game.
Given Philadelphia’s current situation, it makes little sense to limit the team’s biggest talents to these roles. And the argument that they do not play on the penalty kill, which some fans and team insiders use to justify their limited ice time, does not hold up. Trevor Zegras does not kill penalties either, yet he averages 18:01 per game.
Briere and Jones need to decide what matters most for the club’s development and long-term future. Right now, it does not look as though developing their most talented players is the priority.
Tocchet is not the only problem
The Flyers have been a mediocre team for roughly a decade.
Their current situation did not begin with Tocchet’s arrival, nor did it start when Briere and Jones took over. Philadelphia has been falling behind successful organisations such as the Carolina Hurricanes, Colorado Avalanche, Florida Panthers and Tampa Bay Lightning for years.
The fundamental problem is that the Flyers do not appear to have a clear plan for becoming legitimate Stanley Cup contenders.
They are unwilling to trade away veteran players and rebuild the roster from the ground up. At the same time, they are reluctant to part with valuable assets to acquire a superstar. Reportedly, they were unwilling to include Tyson Foerster in any trade this summer, even if it meant pursuing a player of Auston Matthews’ caliber.
Long-term contracts for older players who enjoyed career-best seasons in Philadelphia have not helped either.
Take Nick Seeler, for example. He had not established himself as a regular NHL player anywhere before the age of 28. Yet during his second full season with the Flyers, he was rewarded with a four-year contract.
Before joining Philadelphia, Vladar had never appeared in more than 30 games in a single NHL season. In the summer of 2025, Philadelphia signed him to a two-year contract, which was a good decision. After just one season, the Flyers committed to him for another five years, with the extension taking effect in 2027–28..
Christian Dvorak had spent his career as a bottom-six forward. The Flyers initially signed him to a one-year contract last off-season, which was a reasonable move. During the first half of the season, he played around 17.5 minutes per game, including PP and PK time. The organization promptly rewarded him with another five-year deal.
His production has since fallen back toward his career norms.
However, Brière and Jones’ biggest mistake to date was undoubtedly their mishandling of the Cutter Gauthier situation. The former Flyers prospect has since developed into a 40-goal scorer.
Can Philadelphia’s current management still change course, or are Brière and Jones heading toward dismissal?
According to the latest reports, firing Tocchet is not currently part of the plan. But how long will that remain the case?
Data sources: evolving-hockey.com, moneypuck.com