Wimbledon 2026 women's draw analysis: Serena and struggling top seeds headline open mix

Serena Williams is set to make her singles return against Joint
Serena Williams is set to make her singles return against JointJohn Walton / PA Images / Profimedia

The start of Wimbledon is just a single day away, with the English capital headlining one of the most magical tournaments on the sporting calendar. Today, the focus turns to a wide-open women's draw, while the great Serena Williams makes a truly remarkable return to tennis.

With so many of the leading contenders arriving with question marks over their form, the women's side feels wonderfully open. The possibilities are tantalising.

Let's take a closer look before making our predictions for who will lift the Venus Rosewater Dish.

You can check out our men's draw analysis here.

First quarter

Seeds: Aryna Sabalenka (1), Mirra Andreeva (4), Karolina Muchova (10), Naomi Osaka (14), Maja Chwalinska (20), Leylah Fernandez (22), Emma Raducanu (30), Katerina Siniakova (32)

This is an awkward quarter for Sabalenka and Roland Garros champion Andreeva, especially considering that the former has been below her lofty standards in the last few weeks, and the latter has played only one match since she reigned supreme in Paris.

Sabalenka could face an extremely tricky third-round match with home favourite Raducanu. However, there are rumours that the Brit could pull out with an injury, which would be a massive shame and another blow for the 23-year-old. A fourth match-up of the year with Osaka could be on the cards, and with the Japanese superstar playing the best tennis of her career on grass and coming off the back of a run to the Bad Homburg final, this poses serious danger for the world number one.

Andreeva's route is a nightmare if the draw holds. She begins against the tricky Magda Linette, while former champion Barbora Krejcikova, Siniakova and Muchova are all potential opponents.

Prediction: Muchova to beat Sabalenka in the quarter-finals

I am going bold on Muchova this year! Since reaching the last eight in 2021, Muchova has suffered four straight first-round exits at Wimbledon, which is frankly bizarre considering how complete a tennis player she is and her excellent all-court game. However, she is having an excellent year, has not had any injury concerns, and has really frustrated Sabalenka in the past.

Sabalenka-Muchova last four results
Sabalenka-Muchova last four resultsFlashscore

She leads the head-to-head 3-2 against the Belarusian, and her wonderful style and variety have been really successful in countering Sabalenka's power and putting her off her game in the past.

Second quarter

Seeds: Jessica Pegula (4), Coco Gauff (7), Belinda Bencic (11), Iva Jovic (16), Ekaterina Alexandrova (18), Anna Kalinskaya (19), Anastasia Potapova (27), Ann Li (28)

This is a superb quarter for Pegula to find herself in. The American takes the ball early and likes to keep it flat, making her such a strong player on grass, and she won't fear anyone in this section. Additionally, Gauff struggles majorly on this surface, with her extreme forehand grip often leaving her too rushed on that wing.

Jovic is a fine talent and someone to keep an eye on in this section, while Bencic reached the semi-finals last year, so she should be excited to return to Centre Court.

Prediction: Pegula to beat Bencic in the quarter-finals

I feel really confident about Pegula reaching the semi-finals. She is such a reliable player, and her first-round loss to Elisabetta Cocciaretto last year was a major surprise given how consistent she is. I would be shocked if lightning struck twice.

Third quarter

Seeds: Iga Swiatek (3), Elina Svitolina (8), Marta Kostyuk (12), Jasmine Paolini (13), Emma Navarro (23), Clara Tauson (24), Alexandra Eala (29), Donna Vekic (31)

Let it sink in for a second: Serena Williams is playing at Wimbledon in 2026. Whatever your thoughts are on the situation, it is a mind-boggling turn of events, and in truth, she couldn't have asked for a better first-round draw.

She is set to take on 20-year-old Maya Joint, and despite her talent, she is enduring as bad a year as one could imagine. The Australian has lost 11 consecutive matches on the WTA Tour, winning just twice way back in January.

With a lack of form and the pressure of playing Serena on likely Centre Court, there is a chance she might not be able to handle it. However, I would still back Joint purely because I am struggling to comprehend a 44-year-old Serena winning a match at Wimbledon, having last played singles in 2022. I wouldn't be gobsmacked if the 23-time Grand Slam champion did reach the second round, though.

Anyway, onto the main contenders. Defending champion Swiatek has been drawn in such a tough section, and with her lack of form and coming off the back of a second-round defeat to Navarro in Bad Homburg, it is going to be so complicated for her.

Taylor Townsend is a tricky first-rounder for someone not playing her best tennis, and with former finalist Karolina Pliskova and Eala potential second and third-round opponents, she is going to be tested early.

Prediction: Svitolina to beat Swiatek in the quarter-finals

There are some unknowns here. Kostyuk enjoyed a stunning clay-court season, winning the Madrid title and reaching the Roland Garros semi-finals. But it is hard to say what this new and improved version of Kostyuk translates to grass, considering she hasn't played on it this year.

Former semi-finalist Vekic could also be really dangerous, and she won the title at Queen's recently. But I think the more consistent, more aggressive Svitolina will come out on top in this quarter, and she will topple the champion to reach the semi-finals.

Fourth quarter

Seeds: Elena Rybakina (2), Amanda Anisimova (6), Linda Noskova (9), Diana Shnaider (15), Sorana Cirstea (17), Marie Bouzkova (21), Elise Mertens (25), Madison Keys (26) 

If you had asked me before the grass-court season got underway, I would have 100% said that I think Rybakina would be winning Wimbledon. She is the perfect player on this surface. She is the best server in women's tennis, a gloriously effortless ball striker, and she has won the title here before.  

Yet she is another top player who is strangely searching for her best. Following a second-round loss at Roland Garros, she lost in the quarter-finals of Queen's to Katie Boulter and in the last 16 of Berlin to Eala. Her forehand seems to have gone missing recently, which is a genuine cause for concern.

Rybakina's latest results
Rybakina's latest resultsČTK / imago sportfotodienst / Claudio Gärtner / Opta by StatsPerform

Last year's runner-up, Anisimova, is also similarly not in the best touch, which really opens the door for Noskova and Keys. The former just won the biggest title of her career in Berlin, while the latter won in Eastbourne. Both are punishing hitters and will be dangerous if they carry their confidence into Wimbledon.

Prediction: Rybakina to beat Noskova in the quarter-finals

Despite all that, I am still betting on Rybakina to get to the semi-finals. Her draw isn't too bad at all up until the quarter-finals, so if she can find her rhythm, I think she should have enough. If she isn't playing well, though, don't be surprised to see Noskova in the last four.

Semi-final and final predictions

Semi-final 1: Jessica Pegula to beat Karolina Muchova

Semi-final 2: Elena Rybakina to beat Elina Svitolina

Final: Elena Rybakina to beat Jessica Pegula

I am going to stick with my gut, and although I am seriously concerned about the way she is playing, I think Australian Open champion Rybakina will win her third Grand Slam title at the end of the fortnight.

If I were sculpting a grass-court player, I'd probably end up with someone who resembles the 27-year-old. She was playing such good tennis up until her early defeat in Paris, and I think she could rediscover that in London. 

It is also important to bear in mind that she could become world number one by the climax of this tournament, and perhaps that has been playing on her mind in the last few weeks when she missed opportunities to close the gap on Sabalenka at the summit.

Rybakina has experience of winning Wimbledon before
Rybakina has experience of winning Wimbledon beforeTOLGA AKMEN / EPA / Profimedia

Pegula vs Muchova is a bit of a toss-up for me, but I think it is far likelier that Muchova actually gets knocked out before the semis than Pegula, so I am playing safe and picking the 32-year-old to reach the final.

Rybakina has a strong record against Pegula, too, winning their last five meetings (including at the Billie Jean King Cup Finals at the end of last year). Australian Open and Wimbledon trophies to go alongside becoming world number one for the first time? Not too shabby.

Follow the women's singles at Wimbledon with Flashscore!

Tolga Akdeniz is a global senior editor for Flashscore, specialising in football, basketball and tennis. Our resident Turkish football expert, he can often be found devouring the Super Lig. Tolga lives in London - you can follow him on X and read his latest features right here.

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