Koeman's first tenure as Netherlands manager was almost filled to the brim with positive results. 2-0 win over France, 3-0 and 4-2 wins over Germany, 3-1 win over England, a spot in the Nations League final... Oranje seemed to be back after missing the 2018 World Cup.
But Koeman left for pastures green. FC Barcelona, his old love, knocked on the door. Koeman vacated his role before he could even take the reins at a major tournament.
The former centre-half, who was part of the Netherlands' golden generation that won Euro 1988, returned to become the Netherlands manager after the 2022 World Cup, where Oranje were a penalty shootout away from the semifinals. Fans were optimistic, but Koeman's second tenure at the helm has not lived up to expectations.
The Goliath Syndrome
To have a proper look at how Koeman is doing, let's compare his two tenures in one specific area: results against teams ranked in the top 25 of the FIFA World Ranking.
During his first tenure, between March 2018 and November 2019, the Netherlands played 20 games in total, of which 13 were played against teams ranked in the top 25. The Netherlands won 6 of those games, drew 3, and lost 4, scoring 24 goals and conceding 15 along the way.
Five of those games came against teams inside the top 5: three were won (Portugal 3-0, France 2-0, England 3-1), one ended in a draw (Belgium 1-1), and one ended in defeat (France 1-2), scoring 10 and conceding 4. That's a particularly strong record against the top teams.
Fast forward to Ronald Koeman's second term, starting in March 2023. The Netherlands have played 40 games up to their World Cup opener against Japan on June 14th, and, just as in Koeman's first term, he has faced a top-25 team 13 times in this tenure.
Of those 13 games, the Netherlands have won none. Five games ended in draws, eight in defeat, while the Netherlands scored 17 goals and conceded 29, almost twice as many as in Koeman's first tenure.
Six games came against top-5 teams: France (0-4, 1-2, 0-0), England (1-2), and Spain (2-2, 3-3), all of which kept Oranje winless. The Netherlands scored 7 and conceded 13.
Possible factors
Factors that could support this decline include the overall rise of international football and an ageing core of Netherlands standouts. Virgil van Dijk was in his absolute prime right as Koeman took control of Oranje the first time, but was 32 by the time Koeman returned in 2023.
Memphis Depay is another one of those cases: Depay scored 11 goals in Koeman's first 20 games in charge, of which six came against top-25 teams, as opposed to 12 goals in 23 games in Koeman's second term, of which just two came against top-25 opponents.
Another factor is the lack of chances created against top nations. In Ronald Koeman's second term, the Netherlands have averaged an xG of 2.33 against teams ranked outside the top 25 of the FIFA World Ranking (27 games). This includes the games against Gibraltar (5.34, 2.51) and Malta (4.52, 3.40).
This number takes a big hit in matches against top-25 teams, with the Netherlands' xG dropping to an average of 1.08. Just once did Oranje surpass 2.0xG, in the 3-3 draw against Spain in March 2025, when they scored from two penalties. For comparison: they broke that barrier in 16 of their 27 games against lower-ranked teams.
Koeman's team played six games at a major tournament during his second spell as head coach: at Euro 2024. In Germany, they faced three T25 teams (France, Austria, England) and three non-T25 teams (Poland, Romania, Turkey). The Netherlands totalled 2.57xG against the top nations and 5.15xG against the lower-ranked teams.
World Cup headache
It's clear that this needs to be addressed during the World Cup, when the Netherlands hope to finally shed their reputation as the best nation never to have won a World Cup after losing three finals.
Their opponents in Group F are Japan (ranked 18th), Sweden (38th), and Tunisia (45th), while Brazil (6th) or Morocco (7th) awaits in the second round with a top-2 finish in the group.
Netherlands fans know their team is stacked with quality. Virgil van Dijk, Frenkie de Jong, Cody Gakpo, Ryan Gravenberch, Tijjani Reijnders, Donyell Malen, Denzel Dumfries, Micky van de Ven... It's one of the deepest Netherlands squads in recent memory.
That's not the reason many have doubts whether this will finally be the year that they take a shot at the world title. It's a lack of results in Koeman's second tenure, especially against the top teams.
Five draws and eight losses against teams from the top 25 of the FIFA World Ranking. Time to either start winning or start packing their bags.
Paul Winters is Flashscore's Netherlands country manager, having previously worked for Flashscore's Netherlands desk. Paul is an expert on the Eredivisie and also specialises in the NFL, as well as a plethora of other sports. Residing in 'sunny' Katwijk, you can follow all of the news from the Netherlands here.
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