Fixtures
Italy host Ireland in the opening game in Rome (15:15 CET), after which England take on Wales in Cardiff (17:45 CET).
The final fixture of this year’s Championship takes place in Paris, where France face Scotland (21:00 CET)
Who can still win it?
France (16 match points, +106 points difference)
France are undoubtedly in the driving seat to take the 2025 title. They lost to England at Twickenham in the second round, but have otherwise recorded big wins each time out.
They smashed Wales 43-0 on the opening weekend and went one step further by demolishing Italy 73-24. Les Bleus' most recent victory, a 42-27 win against an Ireland team chasing a third consecutive title, showed just how good Fabien Galthie's side is.
The manner of their victories mean that France are not only top of the standings, but have a points difference of +106.
The way the Six Nations is decided is on match points first, where France lead the way with 16 points. The next best is England on 15, and then Ireland on 14.
It means that a bonus-point victory for France against Scotland in Paris will give them the title regardless of what happens around the rest of the continent.
If two teams are locked on the same amount of match points, then points difference decides the title.
Therefore, even a win without a bonus point would almost certainly be enough for France as England would be the only team that could catch them in that case, and Steve Borthwick's side currently have a points difference of +20, so they'd have to put a record performance against Wales in Cardiff if they were to overturn France's advantage.
Conversely for France, a draw or a loss would likely see them miss out completely despite their dominance, as England will be favourites to get five points in Cardiff, and Ireland will be big favourites to win heavily against the Azzurri as well. A draw or a loss in Paris could therefore see the French finish third.
England (15 match points, +20 points difference)
Though it's not a foregone conclusion, England are likely to get a victory in Cardiff. However, England need their oldest rivals, Scotland, to do them a favour if they are to take the Six Nations title.
Ireland are likely to hammer Italy and get five match points out of that game, which would put them on 19 match points. Their points difference is currently +13, but that is likely to grow significantly on the final weekend in Rome, so in reality, England need to win in Cardiff with a bonus point and hope that Gregor Townsend's players have a night to remember in Paris in the final fixture of the competition.
If England win with a bonus point and France fail to beat Scotland, the title will go to the English. If England win but don’t get a bonus point, it’s highly unlikely that they will get the trophy regardless of what happens in Paris - because of the team below them in the standings as much as the team above them.
Ireland (14 match points, +13 points difference)
Ireland's loss to France was a damaging one for their title ambitions. Had the Irish won, the title would practically be theirs as the trip to Italy this weekend still presents one of the lesser Six Nations challenges despite their progress over the years.
Ireland need to beat Italy with a bonus point first and foremost, and thereafter need two other results to go their way. If France win in Paris, that will be that for Ireland because even if France get the win without a bonus point, they will be on 20 match points, which Ireland cannot overhaul.
If Scotland beat France, Ireland still have to hope that England don't get a good result in Cardiff. If France lose but England get a bonus-point win, then Ireland can't catch them. If France lose and England win but don't get a try-bonus point, the door will be open for Ireland to win the Championship with a big victory in Rome.
Scotland (11 match points, +3 points difference)
Mathematically, Scotland are still in it, but the wait for a first-ever Six Nations title is very likely to go on.
Scotland would need to beat France by over 50 points and hope that Wales beat England and Italy beat Ireland.
Wales could beat England, but Italy beating Ireland would be one of the results of the decade. A victory against this French team by 50 points, on the other hand, would be one that would be written about in Scotland for centuries.
In short, Scotland aren't really in it, but however unlikely it is that they will win the title, the Scots will be motivated to at the very least have some say in where the trophy ends up on Saturday night.
Wooden spoon fight has a familiar feel
Incredible to think now, given their recent run of results which has culminated in a string of 16 consecutive Test defeats, but Wales won the Six Nations as recently as 2021.
In the three tournaments since then, however, they have been in the bottom two along with Italy each time.
Those two teams are once again guaranteed to finish in the bottom two this year, with Italy on four match points and a points difference of -77. Wales have three match points and a points difference of -65.
Should Wales lose to England in Cardiff without a losing bonus point or without scoring at least four tries, they will finish the Six Nations at the bottom of the table for the second consecutive tournament. It would also extend their Six Nations losing streak to 11 games, with their last win in the tournament coming in March 2023.
For Italy, a win against Ireland is certainly unlikely, but they will be hoping to at least avoid finishing bottom of the standings as debate around their automatic inclusion in the tournament continues to rage.