Winless Wallabies have it all to do to retain unbeaten Suncorp record against France

Match News and Current Form

While being full of positive intent, Australia’s string of honourable defeats is now becoming nothing short of an emergency for the hosts of next year’s Rugby World Cup, who lost their fifth match in succession and the eighth of their last nine when falling to a 33-31 defeat against the Irish last week (W1). That run involves losing all of their last three home matches, and includes their first winless European tour since 1958, meaning next week’s tie with Italy could carry more weight than expected if they don’t put on a positive display here. Les Kiss will take over the reins from Joe Schmidt following the Italy encounter, and he’ll be watching closely here hoping Australia don’t lose a sixth test in succession for the first time since 2016.

Schidt’s penultimate squad selection boasts some surprises, none more so than handing flyhalf Declan Meredith his test debut. He starts alongside club teammate Ryan Lonergan at scrumhalf, who’ll govern the same forward pack as last week. The other change in the backline sees Tom Wright return to his usually starting position of fullback, with the bench bolstered by forward talents such as Brandon Paenga-Amosa, the experienced James Slipper and Taniela Tupou, while the backs are supported by Tate McDermott and powerhouse Filipo Daugunu to name a few.

France were once again ridiculed for sending a ‘weakened’ traveling squad to the Southern Hemisphere, but Les Bleus proved exactly how deep their depth runs when they pushed a full-strength New Zealand team all the way in an eventual 34-32 defeat. The Six Nations champions have a reputation for immediately correcting their course since they’ve only lost consecutive matches once since the start of 2024, and considering they’ve been bolstered by some by the arrival of the Top 14 finalists downunder, they’ll likely prove to be an incredibly hard team to beat once again. 

Coach Fabien Galthié has made an array of changes compared to last week’s team, the most notable being Matthieu Jalibert shift from fly-half to full-back to accommodate Romain Ntamack’s return to the international stage, while they possess their own debutants in winger Aaron Grandidier-Nkanang and loosehead prop Moses Alo-Emile. Other changes in the forward pack sees hooker Peato Mauvaka return, both locks are changed with Florian Verhaeghe and Emmanuel Meafou coming in, while looseforward Lenni Nouchi rounds off the changes.

Head-to-Head History

France have won the last three encounters, but Australia will look to the history books to inspire an upset here, since they’ve won 19 of the 25 H2Hs they’ve played at home (D1, L5), including winning all five played at Suncorp Stadium.

Hot Stats and Streaks

Australia have lost 22 of their last 25 matches as a betting outsider.

Australia have lost ten of their last 13 matches when conceding the first try.

France have scored 32+ points in each of their last seven matches.

A backline player has scored the first try in 15 of France’s last 16 away matches.

Key Players to Watch and Missing Players

Australia might be look to exploit France at lineout time, meaning hooker Josh Nasser, who scored a try against France last time these teams met, might be worth a try scorer bet. Someone who’s found his way to the tryline plenty lately is Théo Attissogbe, who crossed the whitewash for a third international game running when scoring against New Zealand.

One of Australia’s shining lights against Ireland Carter Gordon has unfortunately been ruled out, and joining him on physio’s table is loose forward Tom Hooper. The French’s biggest absentee from last week’s team is their all-time top-scorer Damian Penaud, who scored the opening try within two minutes only to frustratingly suffer an injury later on.

Betting Analysis

Neither side will want to lose this match, and that could lead to a cagey start, meaning a bet on the second half being the higher scoring half could be smart.

See the latest squads and team news for the match here.