This is a side burdened by memories of past franchise failures. Following a comprehensive loss to RCB, Punjab Kings will be hoping to bounce back. Mumbai Indians are no strangers to the bright lights - they are hunting a record sixth cup and have the big-game know-how.
There is an added narrative. Ricky Ponting was part of MI’s first title win as a player in 2013, and coached them to their second title in 2015. Now he is in charge of PBKS, looking to help them to their first title. Shreyas Iyer would become the first captain to take three different teams to the final, and the first to do so with different teams in back-to-back years. Can they do it?
Why Punjab can win
The PBKS batting might have collapsed on a bowler-friendly wicket in Mullanpur, but it remains their strength. If they can put that failure at the back of the mind, and keep playing freely, they’ll have the upper hand here. They have Kyle Jamieson carded at number ten, and Azmatullah Omarzai at eight. Their season started with a strong batting performance in Ahmedabad - 243/5.
The flipside is that their bowling, a weak point on batting decks, is also susceptible to going for big runs. They will need plenty of overs from Omarzai, Marcus Stoinis and Vijaykumar Vyshak (if used as IP). None of those three are reliable four-over bowlers. Arshdeep Singh was wayward vs RCB. Kyle Jamieson utilised conditions well in one wicket-maiden over but was hit afterwards.
Yuzvendra Chahal’s fitness will be crucial, and his inclusion will strengthen the bowling. It may come at the cost of slightly reduced batting strength - Harpreet Brar.
Why Mumbai can win
MI do not bat as deep as PBKS, but they have Jasprit Bumrah. His economy this season has been 6.36, his lowest in 12 seasons. He made the difference against GT in the Eliminator too - they looked to play him out, and he still found a way of getting a wicket. He has not gone wicketless since his first game of the season, vs RCB. He is the biggest reason to back MI.
Aside from him, the bowling attack is a bit hit-and-miss. Trent Boult delivered a good final over but went for runs vs GT. Hardik Pandya’s bowling has been expensive this year. Richard Gleeson, on franchise debut, acquitted himself alright but went off with cramps. If he is unavailable (like Deepak Chahar, hamstring), it’ll give them selection conundrums. There will be a role for Ashwani Kumar once again, who has done well in tricky situations this year.
They have Mitchell Santner at number seven, so early wickets make a big difference. Suryakumar Yadav is in sublime form, and it looks like Rohit Sharma and Jonny Bairstow are in good nick too. Both openers enjoyed their fortune, though. Their top six might have enough in the tank against a relatively weaker PBKS pace attack. A lot will depend on the openers’ handling of Arshdeep.
Venue and conditions
In seven games in Ahmedabad, the side batting first has scored 200+ in six games. The outlier was a score of 196. The side batting first has also won six games. The last two games saw mammoth scores of 235 and 230.
That shows what to do: bat first, score big and defend using scoreboard pressure. Yet, PBKS look better suited to chase. It’ll be interesting to see what teams do.
Weather is unlikely to be an issue, given this venue was hand-picked keeping weather patterns in mind.
Match stats
• MI have an 18-0 record of defending 200+ scores in the IPL.
• Marcus Stoinis vs Jasprit Bumrah in IPL: 28 runs off 36 balls, three dismissals.
• Rohit Sharma vs Arshdeep Singh in T20s: 28 runs off 23 balls, one dismissal.
• Rohit became the second IPL batter to reach 300 sixes. He is on 302 now, with Chris Gayle far ahead on 357. He also reached 7000 IPL runs, second to Virat Kohli on 8618.
• Suryakumar Yadav has scored 25+ runs in all 15 innings this season.