The halfway point of season 2025 has arrived and Collingwood have firmed further as Premiership favourites after moving to a 10-2 record with their third win over a top-eight side in four weeks, adding to significant scalps from earlier in the season such as the Lions and Bulldogs.
Brisbane are doing just enough to stay in second without blowing oppositions away in a similar manner, Adelaide are quietly flying under the radar albeit winning mostly against non-contenders, and the two will meet at the Adelaide Oval on Friday night in what could be a crossroads for their respective campaigns.
Adelaide v Brisbane (Friday, 7:40pm AEST)
Adelaide moved above Gold Coast into third place with a very comfortable win in Sydney last weekend, grabbing an even bigger percentage boost than the ones they enjoyed earlier in the month when thrashing Carlton and West Coast.
They remain fifth favourite to win the Premiership in spite of their winning form, and that’s in part due to having not won in 2025 against any side currently higher than seventh-placed GWS on the ladder.
Three of their four defeats this season came against such clubs - Gold Coast, Geelong and Collingwood - and so they desperately need a so-called ‘statement win’ against defending champions Brisbane, who shared the points with them in a draw during this corresponding fixture last year.
Brisbane are averaging 15 points fewer than the Crows and conceding three more this season and those numbers are somewhat distorted by their inability to rack up big wins against weak opposition, with only one of their victories coming by a 40+ point margin (compared with five for Adelaide).
But they hold a 4-1 record against top-eight sides this year and have been starting stronger in recent weeks, holding a half-time lead in six consecutive matches since their loss to flag favourites Collingwood. With that and an unbeaten record outside of Brisbane that spans nine games, they are the most appealing underdogs of the weekend.
Charlie Cameron recorded his third 3+ goal haul of the season last week after going into the game with eight goals from 23 shots, which is an encouraging improvement in accuracy for a man who has booted 2+ in seven of his eight meetings with his former club.
Match prediction: Brisbane to win
Player prediction: Charlie Cameron 2+ goals
Richmond v Sydney (Saturday, 1:20pm AEST)
Sydney were eighth in the Premiership market after their first four matches at the same time that Richmond were joint-favourites for the wooden spoon with West Coast, yet just 13.5 points separate them ahead of this early afternoon match at the MCG.
It’ll be a meeting between two of the poorest scoring sides of the competition this year, with Richmond and Sydney averaging just 68 (18th) and 77 (14th) points per match in 2025, which when combined falls well short of the 164.5 main total points handicap.
Of course, their poor defences open up an opportunity for either or both teams to push those scoring averages up, but the Swans have managed to keep lower ranked clubs such as Carlton, Port Adelaide and Essendon fairly quiet throughout the year, as have the Tigers whose last eight games all finished ‘unders’.
There’s not a single Swans player amongst the 40-odd who average 25 disposals a game this year, meaning you can get some pretty solid prices for all of them.
Chad Warner had a quiet week last week against the Crows, as did many of his teammates. Before that, he was on a three-game streak with 25+ touches including 30 in the win against Carlton.
Match prediction: Under 164.5 total points
Player prediction: Chad Warner 25+ disposals
Carlton v Essendon (Sunday, 7:20pm AEST)
One of the league’s newest annual marquee fixtures returns as bitter rivals Carlton and Essendon line up for what will now be a yearly King’s Birthday Eve holiday blockbuster.
The money men have forecast a score of 89-74 for a total points mark of 163.5, a threshold that has been cleared in only four of Carlton’s 11 games this year and in just one of Essendon’s last nine (their 107-66 loss to Collingwood).
So whilst 163.5 is quite a modest mark in the grand scheme of a season in which all games average 170 points, it still appears to be a little on the high side based on the two teams’ last couple of months, whilstCarlton are on an eight-game streak of MCG matches to finish under the main total points handicap.
There’s also potential value to be found amongst the disposal markets in the form of Essendon defender Archie Roberts.
He’s fourth in the team for most disposals per game (24.09) behind Zach Merrett, Jye Caldwell and Nic Martin, but is ahead of both Caldwell and Martin when it comes to success rate for 25+ disposals, clearing that mark in 60% of his games this year compared with 50% each for Martin and Caldwell.
That’s because the latter two can rack up some returns in the high 30s, inflating their average, but in terms of just getting to 25+ you’ll get a better strike rate and odds with Roberts.
Match prediction: Under 163.5 total points
Player prediction: Archie Roberts 25+ disposals